← The board

My agent

Stage-2 base breakout

Too few

“Buy Stage-2 base breakouts on a break of the pivot, risk half a percent, stop at the low of the day, trail the 20-day from entry. Not in a bear tape.”

Edge per trade+0.21RR per trade
t-stat—too few to measure
Trades1032Sep 1, 2016 – Oct 12, 2026
Win rate19%closed green
CAGR6.0%at its own risk size
Max drawdown-36.8%equity, peak to trough
Last 12 months+0.23R139 signals

Year by year

2017
+1.22R43
2018
+1.36R39
2019
-0.22R104
2020
-0.27R167
2021
+0.35R113
2022
-0.32R90
2023
+0.14R118
2024
+0.63R101
2025
+0.43R148
2026
+0.27R109

Live forward test

Paper-tracked since Oct 1, 2026 on days the backtest never saw. 3 trades so far. Editing the rule restarts the clock.

Latest trades

TickerInOutResultExit
KSSOct 9, 2026Oct 12, 2026 +0.81Ropen
ZSOct 8, 2026Oct 12, 2026 +1.89Ropen
VIAOct 8, 2026Oct 8, 2026 -1.06Rstop
PIOct 7, 2026Oct 12, 2026 +0.57Ropen
NTSKOct 6, 2026Oct 12, 2026 +4.98Ropen
SMCIOct 5, 2026Oct 5, 2026 -1.06Rstop
RMBSOct 5, 2026Oct 5, 2026 -1.07Rstop
IRENSep 23, 2026Sep 23, 2026 -1.03Rstop
SMCISep 23, 2026Sep 23, 2026 -1.06Rstop
DOCUSep 11, 2026Sep 11, 2026 -1.08Rstop
XHLDSep 9, 2026Sep 14, 2026 -1.01Rstop
NKTRSep 8, 2026Sep 9, 2026 -1.02Rstop
GOSep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026 -1.07Rstop
ELFAug 31, 2026Sep 9, 2026 -1.02Rstop
SPOTAug 28, 2026Sep 8, 2026 -1.04Rstop
PCORAug 28, 2026Aug 28, 2026 -1.07Rstop
MUXAug 28, 2026Aug 28, 2026 -1.07Rstop
HLNEAug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026 -1.07Rstop
ARXAug 24, 2026Sep 18, 2026 -0.09Rtrail
SHAKAug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026 -1.07Rstop
ERIEAug 19, 2026Aug 26, 2026 -1.05Rstop
APPFAug 19, 2026Sep 4, 2026 +1.56Rtrail
CTSHAug 19, 2026Sep 8, 2026 +0.52Rtrail
ALKTAug 18, 2026Aug 20, 2026 -1.19Rstop
TTANAug 18, 2026Aug 26, 2026 -0.89Rtrail