Robinhood
Buy every 2% down day
Fragile
“Buy $100 of ROAR every time the price decreases 2% or more in 1 day.”
From Robinhood
As tested: ROAR is Robinhood's made-up ticker, so this runs on SPY: SPY closes 2%+ down → buy at the next open. The prompt never says when to sell, so this holds 20 sessions and compares with buying SPY on any day.
Edge per trade-0.21%% vs buying SPY on any day, per trade
t-stat-0.1695% range -2.72 to +2.30
Trades34Sep 1, 2016 – Oct 12, 2026
Win rate62%beat the comparison
Last 12 months-0.39%2 signals
Why fragile
- t-stat -0.16 is inside the noise
- 53% of resamples have no edge
- only 46% of nudged versions keep the edge, so it's a lucky setting
- one half carries it (-0.22 before 2022, -0.20 after)
Year by year
2016
+0.46%1
2018
-1.96%4
2019
+0.78%2
2020
-1.05%6
2021
+2.11%4
2022
-0.41%8
2023
-1.07%1
2024
+1.89%3
2025
-1.33%3
2026
-0.39%2
Every signal
| Signal | Basket | Comparison | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | +0.74% | +1.19% | -0.45% |
| Jan 20, 2026 | +0.88% | +1.19% | -0.32% |
| Oct 10, 2025 | +1.46% | +1.19% | +0.27% |
| Apr 10, 2025 | +7.80% | +1.19% | +6.61% |
| Mar 10, 2025 | -9.66% | +1.19% | -10.86% |
| Dec 18, 2024 | +2.22% | +1.19% | +1.03% |
| Sep 3, 2024 | +3.56% | +1.19% | +2.37% |
| Jul 24, 2024 | +3.46% | +1.19% | +2.27% |
| Feb 21, 2023 | +0.13% | +1.19% | -1.07% |
| Dec 15, 2022 | +3.17% | +1.19% | +1.97% |
| Nov 2, 2022 | +9.57% | +1.19% | +8.37% |
| Sep 29, 2022 | +4.92% | +1.19% | +3.73% |
| Aug 22, 2022 | -6.70% | +1.19% | -7.89% |
| Jun 9, 2022 | -2.38% | +1.19% | -3.57% |
| Apr 22, 2022 | -8.13% | +1.19% | -9.33% |
| Mar 7, 2022 | +9.10% | +1.19% | +7.90% |
| Feb 3, 2022 | -3.28% | +1.19% | -4.47% |
| Nov 26, 2021 | +3.10% | +1.19% | +1.91% |
| Sep 28, 2021 | +4.67% | +1.19% | +3.48% |
| May 12, 2021 | +3.96% | +1.19% | +2.77% |
| Jan 27, 2021 | +1.50% | +1.19% | +0.30% |
| Oct 28, 2020 | +10.78% | +1.19% | +9.59% |
| Sep 3, 2020 | -3.25% | +1.19% | -4.45% |
| Jun 11, 2020 | +3.40% | +1.19% | +2.21% |
| May 1, 2020 | +8.70% | +1.19% | +7.51% |
| Mar 27, 2020 | +12.18% | +1.19% | +10.99% |
| Feb 24, 2020 | -30.95% | +1.19% | -32.15% |
| Aug 5, 2019 | +1.59% | +1.19% | +0.40% |
| May 13, 2019 | +2.35% | +1.19% | +1.16% |
| Dec 4, 2018 | -4.63% | +1.19% | -5.83% |
| Oct 10, 2018 | +1.31% | +1.19% | +0.12% |
| Mar 22, 2018 | +0.84% | +1.19% | -0.35% |
| Feb 2, 2018 | -0.59% | +1.19% | -1.78% |
| Sep 9, 2016 | +1.65% | +1.19% | +0.46% |