Public
QQQ lower Bollinger band
Fragile
“Set up an Agent that buys $500 of QQQ each time it touches the lower band, up to 4 purchases per month.”
From Public
As tested: QQQ closes under its lower Bollinger band (20 days, 2 deviations) → buy at the next open. The prompt never says when to sell, so this holds 20 sessions and compares with buying QQQ on any day.
Edge per trade-0.20%% vs buying QQQ on any day, per trade
t-stat-0.2195% range -2.10 to +1.70
Trades36Sep 1, 2016 – Oct 12, 2026
Win rate53%beat the comparison
Last 12 months+0.05%4 signals
Why fragile
- t-stat -0.21 is inside the noise
- 59% of resamples have no edge
- 71% of nudged versions keep the edge
- one half carries it (-0.27 before 2021, -0.13 after)
Year by year
2016
+1.15%2
2017
+1.89%2
2018
-1.14%5
2019
+2.05%3
2020
-5.00%2
2021
+0.15%5
2022
-3.27%6
2023
+2.31%3
2024
+1.71%2
2025
+1.13%3
2026
+0.45%3
Every signal
| Signal | Basket | Comparison | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | +4.02% | +1.63% | +2.39% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | +2.92% | +1.63% | +1.30% |
| Jan 20, 2026 | -0.70% | +1.63% | -2.33% |
| Nov 18, 2025 | +0.46% | +1.63% | -1.17% |
| Apr 3, 2025 | +11.47% | +1.63% | +9.84% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | -3.66% | +1.63% | -5.28% |
| Jul 24, 2024 | +3.95% | +1.63% | +2.32% |
| Apr 15, 2024 | +2.73% | +1.63% | +1.10% |
| Oct 25, 2023 | +11.63% | +1.63% | +10.00% |
| Sep 21, 2023 | -0.01% | +1.63% | -1.63% |
| Aug 9, 2023 | +0.19% | +1.63% | -1.43% |
| Dec 16, 2022 | +1.36% | +1.63% | -0.26% |
| Aug 26, 2022 | -9.87% | +1.63% | -11.49% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | +2.98% | +1.63% | +1.35% |
| Apr 22, 2022 | -10.93% | +1.63% | -12.55% |
| Feb 23, 2022 | +10.38% | +1.63% | +8.76% |
| Jan 19, 2022 | -3.82% | +1.63% | -5.44% |
| Dec 1, 2021 | +3.80% | +1.63% | +2.18% |
| Sep 20, 2021 | +1.28% | +1.63% | -0.35% |
| Aug 18, 2021 | +4.92% | +1.63% | +3.30% |
| May 4, 2021 | +0.27% | +1.63% | -1.36% |
| Feb 25, 2021 | -1.41% | +1.63% | -3.03% |
| Oct 28, 2020 | +8.41% | +1.63% | +6.79% |
| Feb 25, 2020 | -15.15% | +1.63% | -16.78% |
| Oct 2, 2019 | +6.92% | +1.63% | +5.29% |
| Aug 2, 2019 | +2.06% | +1.63% | +0.43% |
| May 13, 2019 | +2.07% | +1.63% | +0.44% |
| Nov 20, 2018 | -5.68% | +1.63% | -7.31% |
| Oct 5, 2018 | -5.67% | +1.63% | -7.30% |
| Jun 27, 2018 | +6.11% | +1.63% | +4.49% |
| Mar 22, 2018 | -0.28% | +1.63% | -1.91% |
| Feb 5, 2018 | +7.97% | +1.63% | +6.34% |
| Aug 10, 2017 | +2.00% | +1.63% | +0.38% |
| Jul 3, 2017 | +5.02% | +1.63% | +3.39% |
| Nov 1, 2016 | +1.14% | +1.63% | -0.49% |
| Sep 9, 2016 | +4.41% | +1.63% | +2.79% |