Public
Conditional dip purchase
Too few
“If AAPL drops 5% in a single day, buy $1,000 worth.”
From Public
As tested: AAPL closes 5%+ down on the day → buy at the next open. The prompt never says when to sell, so this holds 20 sessions and compares with buying AAPL on any day.
Edge per trade+1.79%% vs buying AAPL on any day, per trade
t-stat0.6295% range -3.83 to +7.41
Trades13Sep 1, 2016 – Oct 12, 2026
Win rate62%beat the comparison
Last 12 months+9.77%2 signals
Why too few
- 13 closed trades. Needs at least 15 to call.
Year by year
2018
-11.66%1
2019
+5.84%3
2020
+4.09%4
2022
-10.97%2
2025
+3.45%1
2026
+9.77%2
Every signal
| Signal | Basket | Comparison | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | +3.26% | +2.36% | +0.90% |
| Jun 25, 2026 | +21.00% | +2.36% | +18.64% |
| Apr 3, 2025 | +5.81% | +2.36% | +3.45% |
| Sep 13, 2022 | -10.31% | +2.36% | -12.67% |
| May 5, 2022 | -6.91% | +2.36% | -9.27% |
| Oct 30, 2020 | +9.20% | +2.36% | +6.84% |
| Sep 3, 2020 | -6.00% | +2.36% | -8.35% |
| Apr 1, 2020 | +22.21% | +2.36% | +19.85% |
| Feb 27, 2020 | +0.37% | +2.36% | -1.99% |
| Aug 5, 2019 | +5.08% | +2.36% | +2.72% |
| May 13, 2019 | +4.41% | +2.36% | +2.05% |
| Jan 3, 2019 | +15.11% | +2.36% | +12.76% |
| Nov 2, 2018 | -9.30% | +2.36% | -11.66% |