Composer
TQQQ/SQQQ
Fragile
“A daily, contrarian switch among 3x tech-linked ETFs (TQQQ, SQQQ, TECL) and short-term bonds (BSV).”
From Composer
As tested: Daily: TQQQ up 31%+ in 10 sessions → SQQQ; SQQQ up 25%+ in 10 → TQQQ; TQQQ's 10-day RSI under 31 → TECL; else BSV.
Holding today: BSV 100% · last switch Jul 30, 2026
Composer's page describes the rule but hides some cutoffs; Composer reports 38% a year since publication, well above this version, so the real tree likely differs. Uses leveraged funds. The test covers 2016–2026, one long Nasdaq bull market; it has never seen a 2000–02 or 2008, where 3× funds lost 90%+.
Edge per month+0.06 pts/mopts per month vs SPY
t-stat0.0995% range -1.20 to +1.31
Months120Nov 1, 2016 – Oct 12, 2026
CAGR15.2%SPY 15.8%
Max drawdown-52.3%SPY -33.8%
Since published+0.29 pts/mo39 months from Jul 23, 2023; -0.02 pts/mo before
Last 12 months-5.99 pts12 months, summed
Why fragile
- t-stat 0.09 is inside the noise
- 47% of resamples have no edge
- only 25% of nudged versions keep the edge, so it's a lucky setting
- the edge held after publication: +0.29 since it was published in 2023-07, vs -0.02 before
Growth of $1
TQQQ/SQQQSPY
Log scale. Traded at the next open after each signal, daily rebalance, slippage on every trade.
Year by year
2016
-2.74 pts/mo2
2017
-1.56 pts/mo12
2018
+1.83 pts/mo12
2019
-1.98 pts/mo12
2020
-1.43 pts/mo12
2021
-0.80 pts/mo12
2022
+5.37 pts/mo12
2023
-0.06 pts/mo12
2024
+0.00 pts/mo12
2025
+0.41 pts/mo12
2026
-0.89 pts/mo10