Composer
Follow the Global Trend
Fragile
“Splits into 4 lanes (US stocks, international stocks, bonds, commodities/real estate) and buys the recent winner in each; 25% per lane.”
From Composer
As tested: Monthly, 25% per lane, each holding its best ~8-month (168-session) return: SPY/QQQ/USMV/VBR/VBK · VEA/VWO/EWJ/MCHI · IEF/TLT/IEI/TIP/TMF · GLD/GNR/VNQ/GSG.
Holding today: QQQ 25% · EWJ 25% · TIP 25% · GSG 25% · last switch Oct 12, 2026
Uses leveraged funds. The test covers 2016–2026, one long Nasdaq bull market; it has never seen a 2000–02 or 2008, where 3× funds lost 90%+.
Edge per month-0.43 pts/mopts per month vs SPY
t-stat-1.2995% range -1.08 to +0.22
Months120Nov 1, 2016 – Oct 12, 2026
CAGR10.5%SPY 15.8%
Max drawdown-24.5%SPY -33.8%
Since published-0.66 pts/mo56 months from Feb 13, 2022; -0.26 pts/mo before
Last 12 months-6.78 pts12 months, summed
Why fragile
- t-stat -1.29 is inside the noise
- 89% of resamples have no edge
- only 0% of nudged versions keep the edge, so it's a lucky setting
- the edge vanished after publication: -0.66 since it was published in 2022-02, vs -0.26 before
Growth of $1
Follow the Global TrendSPY
Log scale. Traded at the next open after each signal, monthly rebalance, slippage on every trade.
Year by year
2016
-5.62 pts/mo2
2017
+0.20 pts/mo12
2018
-0.38 pts/mo12
2019
-0.26 pts/mo12
2020
+1.16 pts/mo12
2021
-0.92 pts/mo12
2022
-0.06 pts/mo12
2023
-1.84 pts/mo12
2024
-1.09 pts/mo12
2025
+0.54 pts/mo12
2026
-0.83 pts/mo10