Composer
Believe in Big Tech
Inconclusive
“Every month, this symphony holds the top two stocks based on the last 20 day cumulative return.”
From Composer
As tested: Monthly: the 2 best 20-day returns among AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, META, AMZN, NVDA, ADBE, PYPL, 50/50.
Holding today: META 50% · NVDA 50% · last switch Sep 30, 2026
Hindsight: these are today's names. The basket knows who survived and got popular, so the backtest flatters the card.
Edge per month+1.66 pts/mopts per month vs SPY
t-stat2.7595% range +0.47 to +2.84
Months120Nov 1, 2016 – Oct 12, 2026
CAGR36.7%SPY 15.8%
Max drawdown-49.7%SPY -33.8%
Since published+1.37 pts/mo56 months from Feb 13, 2022; +2.04 pts/mo before
Last 12 months-16.14 pts12 months, summed
Why inconclusive
- t-stat 2.75 clears 2.0
- the edge stays positive in 95% of resamples
- 100% of nudged versions keep the edge, so it isn't one lucky setting
- the edge held after publication: +1.37 since it was published in 2022-02, vs +2.04 before
- capped at Inconclusive: the basket was picked with hindsight
Growth of $1
Believe in Big TechSPY
Log scale. Traded at the next open after each signal, monthly rebalance, slippage on every trade.
Year by year
2016
+0.61 pts/mo2
2017
+2.80 pts/mo12
2018
-0.28 pts/mo12
2019
+2.08 pts/mo12
2020
+4.29 pts/mo12
2021
+1.61 pts/mo12
2022
-2.00 pts/mo12
2023
+4.60 pts/mo12
2024
+2.66 pts/mo12
2025
+2.13 pts/mo12
2026
-1.68 pts/mo10